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COVID-19 Projection Models Show Oregon At Critical Point

New projections of COVID-19 cases in Oregon show the state is at a critical moment in the fight against the disease.  Models presented during an Oregon Health Authority media briefing show social distancing measures could alter the trajectory of new infections, which gives Oregon’s health care system the chance to ramp up to meet the coming surge, but the state has little margin for error.  Dr. Dean Sidelinger of the Oregon Health Authority says a return to “business as usual” or slight differences in actual infection rates, compared to projected ones, could swamp hospitals with more coronavirus cases than they could treat.  Models show under the aggressive interventions put into place on Monday, with high public adherence, could keep the estimated number of infections down to 1,000, with a wide range of variance, by May 8, and keep hospital bed needs to a minimum.  In contrast if there was a return to business as usual there would be an estimated 15,000 COVID-19 cases by May 8 with 1100 people needing in-patient beds, and if the measures that were in place through the weekend and been left as is the estimate for May 8 was 6100 cases with 340 hospital beds need.